Sunday 16 May 2021

What is the Meaning of Gambler’s Fallacy?

Gambler’s Fallacy, also known as "The Monte Carlo fallacy", is a misconception that if something has happened repeatedly over a while then it is it’s less likely to happen in the future. Understanding the gambler’s fallacy and its consequences play a crucial role in modeling a successful gambler. Gambler's Fallacy will prevent you from making certain common mistakes that have seen many gamblers losing money. 

What Are the Real Examples of the gambler’s fallacy? 

A good example of the gambler’s fallacy is when someone falsely believes that if a coin lands on heads in a consecutive row, then it must land on its tails in the next tosses. 

Another notable example of the gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that if the slot machine hasn't hit the jackpot in the last hour then someone is likely to hit a big win any minute now. 

Many gamblers have incurred losses by falling into the trap of the gambler’s fallacy. For example, a rare incident occurred in a 1913 incident, at a roulette game at the Monte Carlo Casino. Since the ball had fallen on the color black in 26 consecutive times, many gamblers lost millions of dollars by predicting that the outcome of the ball would be red throughout the streak. 

Gambler’s fallacy also influences how people make decisions in matters beyond gambling. For example, many people mistakenly believe that if someone has previously given birth to babies of a certain gender, then they are likely to give birth to a kid of the opposite gender.

The gambler’s fallacy also affects how different professionals make decisions and provide judgments. For example, sports referees, loan officers, judges, psychologists, and more have been accused of giving their final judgment based on gambler’s fallacy. 

How Can I Avoid the Gambler’s Fallacy? 

People experience the gambler’s fallacy because of the imperfect way their cognitive system works. To avoid the gambler’s fallacy, you should first understand the role it’s playing in someone’s mind, and then use the events in questions to demonstrate independence. Additionally, you can implement general de-biasing techniques by using relevant examples to explain why this type of narrative is questionable.


When resolving the gambler’s fallacy, it is important to note that in some cases, a series of unlikely outcomes of events can suggest that the events in question are independent of one another or are not truly random.

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